State of the market – Spring 2025
As the weather warms up and gardens start to bloom, Australia’s real estate market is readying to embrace its busiest season of the year, with spring seeing a rise in property listings and sales.
So as we enter the busy season, what’s the current state of the Australian property market and what are we likely to see over the weeks ahead?
Activity increase
As Domain explains, spring is the defining season for the Australian housing market.
“Each year, activity lifts in a remarkably consistent pattern: listings rise, auctions intensify, and transactions increase. These seasonal forces shape how the property market closes out the year,” they note.
There are a number of reasons that are both practical and psychological that underpin this increase.
As the weather warms, more people tend to attend both open homes and auctions. Properties also tend to present beautifully in spring, while there’s an interesting mindset shift where the warmer weather and the promise of summer to come tends to lift moods and spur people into making life decisions.
In the meantime, spring sees the countdown commence to Christmas, with people looking to be in their new home prior to the festive season and the new year that follows.
Domain notes all of these elements result in a property market pattern that emerges each spring.
Historical data
When it comes to the data, the numbers paint a telling picture of just how much the real estate market surges in spring.
Listing volumes – Domain notes over the past decade, listing volumes have consistently lifted, with an average of 5.9 per cent more listings in spring than winter.
Sales volumes – With the listings on the rise, sales volumes follow suit, with sales averaging 8.4 per cent higher in spring than in winter.
Auctions – Auction activity also tends to increase, with spring delivering the busiest auction calendar of the year. Typically, spring auction volumes are 31.1 per cent higher than winter and nearly 65 per cent above summer.
Interestingly, however, spring doesn’t hold the top spot for clearance rates. Ten years of data indicates spring’s clearance rate averages 60.2 per cent, while autumn has an average clearance rate of 61.5 per cent.
Prices – As for prices, Domain reports they also tend to lift in spring compared to winter, averaging a 2.6 per cent increase, compared to only 0.4 per cent from autumn to winter and 0.2 per cent from spring to summer.
Supply and demand
On September 1, Cotality (formerly Core Logic) released its latest data noting demand for properties was outstripping supply, with advertised property listings 20 per cent below average.
“Once again, we are seeing a clear mismatch between available supply and demonstrated demand placing upwards pressure on housing values,” Cotality Australia’s research director, Tim Lawless said.
“The annual trend in estimated home sales is up two percent on last year and tracking almost 4 per cent above the previous five-year average.
“At the same time, advertised supply levels remain about -20 per cent below average for this time of the year.”
In the meantime, the Home Value Index rose 0.7 per cent in August, signalling the strongest monthly gain since May 2024.
It brings home value increases to 4.1 per cent in total for the year, and chances are the value rises are likely to continue, but not at the pace seen during the heady days of the pandemic.
Auction activity
Auction activity typically ramps up during spring and already we’re seeing signs of that trend. The week ending August 31 saw 2190 homes go to auction across the capitals, marking the busiest week in the past three months.
That volume was a 0.6 per cent increase on the week prior but down slightly on the same time last year when 2315 homes went to auction.
A similar number of homes (2150) are expected to go to auction in the first week of spring.
Meanwhile, Cotality notes the auction clearance rate is also on the increase. In late August it was sitting at 70 per cent, marking the highest success rate since February.
Interest rates
This year has seen three interest rate cuts, with the most recent reduction in August bringing the current cash rate to 3.6 per cent.
While that’s welcome relief to households, it’s a far cry from the record low of the pandemic which saw the Reserve Bank slash the cash rate to 0.1 per cent.
However, a flow on effect of a lower cash rate is that it provides buyers with more borrowing power, and that’s likely to further spur on competition for properties.
The takeaway
As Cotality’s Tim Lawless notes, vendors appear to be in a solid position for spring, with demand for properties outstripping supply, and buyers in a better position to purchase courtesy of three interest rate cuts across the year.
While there are signs of the typical increase in property listings as we head into the busiest selling period of the year, the reality there is still less stock on the market than in previous years.
That’s prompting strong buyer competition for properties and could result in slight price increases. These rises are unlikely to be anywhere near as extreme as seen in recent years and may also be location dependent.
“We are starting to see the usual start of spring upswing in new listings coming to market, but from a low base,” Mr. Lawless said.
“A pick up in the flow of stock coming to market through spring will be good news for buyers who generally have limited choice at the moment.”
